A few days ago, I posted my predictions for the Cubs’ series against the Cards and Reds. The Cards series is now in the books, and my prediction–that the Cubs would win the first two games and lose the third–was right on. If the Reds series also conforms to my picks, I’m going to make these predictions a regular feature. I think that completely ignoring momentum and just focusing on the past performance of both teams versus the starting pitchers is about as good a way to predict the outcome of baseball games as there is. With that in mind, let me also make some predictions about the Cards/Brewers series coming up:

Friday–Claudio Vargas vs. Mike Maroth: this is sort of a toss-up, as both pitchers have been ineffective against the hitters they’ll be opposing. I’m going to go with the Brewers, though, in a high scoring game.

Saturday 1–Manny Parra vs. Brad Thompson: Parra has never faced the Cards, while Thompson has done OK against the Brew Crew. I’m going with the Cards here.

Saturday 2–Chris Capuano vs. Anthony Reyes: Another case of both pitchers struggling against opposing hitters. I’m going Cards again.

Sunday–Yovani Gallardo vs. Kip Wells: Brewers.

So I’m predicting a split in the four game series–always a safe bet. If the Cubs do what I expect them to do and win two of three, they’ll return home on Monday 1.5 games back of Milwaukee.

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